The Guru Names The Open Favourite — And It's Not What The Pundits Agree On

Sky Sports assembled their panel, the public voted in the poll and the social feeds filled with hot takes — but the Open is a different animal. Pundits split between recent form and historical pedigree, while the bookmakers already whisper whose price is wrong. The margins here are measured in wind, raw nerve and a single putt.

At the front of most lists sit Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, with Viktor Hovland and a handful of in-form Europeans shadowing them. Analysts emphasise power and ball-striking for these sloping, windy links, but the course will reward shots into the right sections of the greens rather than pure distance. Sky's experts disagree on whether current form trumps proven links instinct; both arguments have merit.

Statistically, major temperament and scrambling around the green are more predictive than recent wins on parkland events. That elevates players who read wind and accept low-percentage lines under pressure — don’t overvalue the hot streak. Dark-horse candidates like Tommy Fleetwood or Tyrrell Hatton offer genuine each-way value if the weather turns brutal and greens become dicey.

The Guru’s verdict: back Rory McIlroy to take The Open. He combines hunger, proven links nous and the aggressive control needed when wind and pin positions bite; if you want insurance, place a small each-way on Fleetwood or Hovland for value. Trust the course, respect the wind, and bet with discipline — that is how championships are won.