Why is a 33/1 tip worth considering?

A 33/1 price can reflect overlooked tactical advantages — a favourable draw, pace map, jockey booking or trainer form — that aren't obvious from headline form. Value exists when those factors align.

How should I stake on a longshot like this?

Stake small and each-way. The Guru recommends one unit each-way and only on at least 1/5 terms; treat it as a value nibble, not a full-size punt.

What race conditions make the pick more credible?

Firm ground, a clear pace scenario and an inside or handy draw at York all improve a longshot’s chance in the Nunthorpe. If those line up, the 33/1 looks shrewd rather than reckless.

Guru Verdict: Blake’s 33/1 Nunthorpe Gambit — Worth a Squeeze at York?

Kevin Blake's 33/1 selection for the Nunthorpe on York's day three has done what longshots should: it has provoked thought rather than blind money. The odds scream outsider, but bookmakers price in volume and narrative more than subtle form lines. When a tip lands at that price, the intelligent response is not derision but a cold read of the variables that produced it.

The Nunthorpe is five frantic furlongs and York's straight is an unforgiving place for traffic and slow starts; pace pattern and gate position matter more than pedigree. Blake's call gains credibility if the selection can secure an early pitch and exploit a speedy bias on firm ground — both elements that often reverse official numbers. Look beyond headline odds to recent sectionals, jockey mapping and trainer strike-rates over five furlongs.

There are reasons to believe and reasons to fade: a trainer returning from a quiet spell, a jockey with a clear front-running plan, or a run that suddenly falls into the right race shape all justify a 33/1 price. Equally, a deep field and a couple of proven Group-class sprinters make this an event where luck and luck alone can elevate a longshot. Practically, this is a small each-way play for me, not a souvenir bet; value exists, but vulnerability is real.

The Guru's line is simple and decisive: back Kevin Blake's 33/1 Nunthorpe pick each-way in small stakes if the ground is testing and the selection draws well, otherwise admire from the sidelines. My recommendation is one unit each-way only, and only if your book offers at least 1/5 terms — otherwise pass. In races like the Nunthorpe, discipline wins more than heroics.