Baku Shake-Up: Mercedes Exposed — Rivals Roar Back in Final Practice
The final practice session in Baku finished more like an audition than a run-through, with Mercedes visibly on the back foot and their rivals smelling blood. Red Bull and Ferrari turned in sharper one-lap pace across the long straights and tricky sectors, forcing Mercedes to hunt for answers under the low sun. The paddock hummed: upgrades, wing trims and engine maps were being discussed in urgent, clipped tones.
Numbers matter here and the numbers stung Mercedes. Sector splits showed the W-car losing time on the medium-speed sweepers and understeer into the final corner, while rivals found better compromise between top speed and stability. That said, Mercedes' long-run data still hints at race pace resilience — if they can cure the qualifying wobble, they can be dangerous on Sunday.
Strategy will decide how this weekend unfolds: tyre choice, DRS windows and set-up gambles on the unforgiving Baku walls. Expect teams to hide final bullets until qualifying; track evolution and temperature swings could flip the pecking order in an hour. Risk is high — one mistake on a street circuit erases all the hard work — and teams who balance aggression with caution will reap the reward.
The Guru's read is clear: Red Bull arrive with the edge and Ferrari are breathing down Mercedes' neck, but nothing is settled until Q3 ends. My recommendation — watch for late wing trims and engine modes in Q2; if Mercedes solves its balance, they will claw back starting positions, but the safe bet for pole remains Red Bull. I expect Verstappen on pole, Mercedes to fight back into the top three and a tense, tactical race to follow.